Unemployment Rate

X-13ARIMA-SEATS removes the predictable annual labor-market cycle: graduates entering the workforce in May–June, students leaving and re-entering, agricultural and construction seasonality, retail hiring around holidays. For unemployment, the seasonal swing is large relative to the value of the series — the gap between columns frequently reaches 0.3–0.8 percentage points.

• The raw column is the unemployment rate that actually existed that month.
• The filtered column is the rate as if every month had the same labor force composition.
• When commentary says "unemployment ticked up" or "ticked down," it is almost always the filtered column. The raw column moves on a sawtooth pattern that the filter smooths out.